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The ECB’s September 2026 Consumer Expectations Survey found that median expectations for inflation over the next 12 months rose to 3.1% from 3.0% in August, while three- and five-year expectations were unchanged. Respondents also expected weaker economic growth, higher unemployment and tighter access to credit; the survey reflects consumer responses, not the views of ECB decision-makers.
The European Central Bank reported on 23 October that euro area consumers’ median expectation for inflation over the next 12 months rose to 3.1% in September, from 3.0% in August, while their outlook for economic growth weakened. The monthly survey also showed higher expected unemployment and a rise in the net share of households reporting or anticipating tighter credit access, offering a snapshot of household expectations used in the ECB’s policy analysis.
Consumers’ median estimate of inflation over the previous 12 months increased to 3.6% from 3.5% in August. Expectations for inflation three years ahead stayed at 2.9%, and five-year expectations remained at 2.5%. The ECB said uncertainty around expectations for inflation over the coming year edged higher and remained above the level recorded before the start of the conflict in the Middle East.
Expectations for nominal income growth over the next 12 months rose to 1.1% from 1.0%. Expected nominal spending growth also increased, to 3.7% from 3.6%, while respondents’ estimate of spending growth over the previous 12 months reached 5.3%, up from 5.2%. These are survey measures of expected or perceived nominal changes, not forecasts of inflation-adjusted household income or spending.
The expected economic growth rate over the next 12 months fell to -1.5% from -1.2%. Respondents put the unemployment rate in 12 months at 11.3%, up from 11.0%, compared with a perceived current rate of 10.6%. The ECB said this gap suggested consumers expected a broadly stable labour-market outlook, despite the higher forward estimate.
Households Signal a Softer Outlook
The results present a mixed picture for policymakers and households. Short-term inflation expectations rose modestly, but medium- and longer-term median expectations did not change. The increase in the near-term measure may matter to the ECB as it monitors how consumers perceive price pressures, although the survey alone does not establish the direction of future inflation or determine policy decisions.
At the same time, lower growth expectations and a higher expected unemployment rate point to greater caution among surveyed consumers about the economic outlook. Rising reports and expectations of tighter credit access may also be relevant to households planning borrowing or large purchases. The ECB release gives the direction of those credit-access measures but does not provide a percentage-point estimate in the supplied results.
Differences between income groups underline that respondents do not share a uniform experience. The ECB said people in the bottom income quintile continued to report higher inflation perceptions and expectations than those in the top quintile. The lowest-income group also anticipated higher unemployment and home-price growth, and higher mortgage rates, than the highest-income group.
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How the Monthly Survey Works
The Consumer Expectations Survey is a monthly online survey of around 19,000 adults in 11 euro area countries: Belgium, Germany, Ireland, Greece, Spain, France, Italy, the Netherlands, Austria, Portugal and Finland. The ECB uses its results for policy analysis alongside other economic data. The September fieldwork took place from 27 August to 28 September 2026.
The release says its figures generally refer to the 2% winsorised mean, while the inflation figures highlighted in the results are identified as medians. The measures should not be treated as official inflation or unemployment statistics: they capture consumers’ perceptions and expectations. The ECB also states that the survey results do not represent the views of its decision-making bodies or staff. Country-level and euro area results are published through the ECB Data Portal and its website.
Housing expectations moved higher in September: respondents expected home prices to rise 3.5% over the next year, compared with 3.4% in August. Expected mortgage interest rates in 12 months remained at 4.9%, unchanged from July. The ECB reported that the lowest-income group expected 4.0% home-price growth and a 5.7% mortgage rate, compared with 3.2% and 4.4%, respectively, for the highest-income group.
“Consumers continued to expect the future unemployment rate to be only slightly higher than the perceived current unemployment rate (10.6%), suggesting a broadly stable labour market outlook.”
— European Central Bank
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What Survey Results Cannot Establish
The survey records consumer perceptions and expectations; it does not establish what inflation, economic growth, unemployment or borrowing costs will actually be. The release does not identify the reasons behind the month-to-month changes, and the results do not show whether the shifts reflect broad changes in sentiment or other influences on responses.
Although the ECB said uncertainty about near-term inflation expectations increased slightly, it did not provide a numerical measure of that change in the supplied release. The credit-access findings are also directional: the net share reporting tighter access, and the net share expecting tighter access, both increased compared with August, but the release does not state their levels here. The survey’s results should not be read as a decision or forecast from the ECB’s governing bodies.
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October Results Due in November
The ECB has scheduled publication of the October Consumer Expectations Survey results for 27 November 2026. That release will show whether the September movements in short-term inflation expectations, growth and unemployment outlooks, housing expectations and credit access continued or reversed. Readers can also consult the ECB Data Portal for detailed results and the survey’s data and methodological information.
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Key Questions
What did the ECB’s September survey find about inflation expectations?
Median expectations for inflation over the next 12 months rose to 3.1% from 3.0% in August. Expectations three and five years ahead were unchanged at 2.9% and 2.5%, respectively.
Did consumers expect the euro area economy to grow?
The expected economic growth rate over the next 12 months fell to -1.5% in September, from -1.2% in August. This is a survey measure of consumer expectations, not an official growth outcome.
What did respondents expect for unemployment?
Consumers expected the unemployment rate in 12 months to be 11.3%, up from 11.0% in August. Their perceived current unemployment rate was 10.6%.
When will the ECB publish its next survey results?
The ECB said its October 2026 Consumer Expectations Survey results are scheduled for 27 November 2026.
Source: primary
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