Lithium’s $100B Question: Who Will Build 134 New Mines?

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Benchmark Mineral Intelligence forecasts lithium demand will rise from 2.11 million tonnes of lithium carbonate equivalent this year to nearly 7 million tonnes by 2050. Meeting that demand would require supply equivalent to 134 new mines and more than $100 billion in investment before accounting for recycling, the firm says.

Global lithium demand could more than triple by 2050, requiring supply equivalent to 134 new mines and more than $100 billion in investment before recycling, according to a forecast from Benchmark Mineral Intelligence. The projection highlights the scale of the challenge for producers and governments seeking enough lithium for electric vehicles, batteries and energy storage.

The London-based research firm forecasts consumption will climb to nearly 7 million tonnes of lithium carbonate equivalent (LCE) by 2050, from 2.11 million tonnes this year. Using an average mine capacity of 36,000 tonnes a year, Benchmark estimates the additional supply would equal one new mine every two months over the next 24 years. The figures are a long-range forecast, not a count of projects already approved or under construction.

Benchmark product director for lithium Cameron Perks said sustaining investment through commodity price cycles will be difficult as lithium projects compete with other sectors for capital. The report identifies financing limits, lengthy permitting and competition for investment as potential constraints, particularly in Western countries seeking to reduce reliance on China for battery materials.

Benchmark expects electric vehicles to account for 76% of lithium demand by 2050, up from 55% today. Batteries already represent 92% of consumption, compared with about 70% in 2020. Demand for stationary energy storage has grown by more than 60% annually over the past two years, though the firm expects its growth rate to moderate to about 5% a year through the end of the decade.

The Race to Finance New Supply

The forecast matters because lithium projects take time and capital to develop, while demand is expected to expand as transport and power systems use more batteries. If new mines and recycling capacity arrive too slowly, supply could struggle to keep pace with consumption. Benchmark’s figures describe the scale of investment implied by its outlook; they do not establish that a shortage will occur.

The geography of production is also relevant to governments seeking more domestic supply. Benchmark projects North America’s share of mined lithium output rising from 1.7% this year to 13% by 2050. Its share of global lithium demand from battery-cell manufacturing is forecast to double to 12%. Europe presents a different imbalance: it accounts for 7% of demand from cell production but less than 1% of mined supply. The firm expects Europe’s mining share to reach 5.5% by 2050, still below its projected 8% share of cell-manufacturing demand.

Where Future Lithium May Come From

Benchmark expects Australia, currently the largest lithium-mining jurisdiction, to supply 29% of global mined output this year, with its share declining to 20% by 2050. The forecast includes brownfield developments such as PLS’s P2000 expansion, which is expected to begin around 2030. Perks said some Australian mines will be depleting by mid-century and cited price volatility and a growing regulatory burden as obstacles to financing growth.

China is forecast to retain roughly one-quarter of mined production, supported by investment in domestic resources and its established battery supply chain. North American and European expansion could face additional delays: some deposits depend on unproven technologies, while projects may encounter environmental concerns and community opposition. Perks said these obstacles are manageable but can delay development and raise costs.

The mine count is not the only way to meet future needs. Benchmark expects recovered material to provide almost half of lithium supply by mid-century. Its capital spending analysis, which assumes recycling supplies a substantial share of demand, estimates about $64 billion in investment through 2040. That estimate uses a different time horizon and recycling assumption from the more than $100 billion figure associated with the mine-equivalent supply requirement.

“The biggest challenge is sustaining that investment through price cycles, while competing for capital with AI, defence and the wider energy transition.”

— Cameron Perks, Benchmark Mineral Intelligence product director for lithium

Demand, Recycling and Project Timing

The forecast depends on assumptions about future battery adoption, mine capacity, project development and recycling. Benchmark says its outlook could be conservative if policies supporting electric vehicles and energy storage produce stronger demand. In an upside scenario, demand could approach 9 million tonnes LCE by 2050, requiring the equivalent of around 180 new mines and more than $150 billion in investment.

How much recycling can reduce mining needs remains uncertain. Batteries cannot be recycled for their materials until they reach the end of their useful lives, so the timing and volume of retired batteries matter. Recycling must also remain commercially competitive with newly mined lithium. The report does not establish how many individual projects will be financed, permitted or completed, or how actual demand and prices will develop.

The Milestones That Shape Supply

The next test will be whether companies can secure financing and advance projects through permitting, construction and production while commodity prices fluctuate. In Australia, the forecast includes PLS’s P2000 expansion, expected to begin around 2030; broader supply projections extend to 2050. Battery retirements and the growth of commercial recycling capacity will also show whether recovered lithium can provide the share Benchmark expects.

Benchmark’s report does not identify a confirmed list of 134 mines. The figure represents equivalent capacity under the firm’s demand and mine-size assumptions. Actual requirements will depend on how demand evolves, how much lithium recycling delivers, and whether projects across established and emerging mining regions reach production.

Key Questions

What does the 134-mine estimate mean?

It is Benchmark Mineral Intelligence’s estimate of the mine-equivalent supply needed to meet its projected demand growth by 2050, using an average capacity of 36,000 tonnes annually. It is not a list of 134 confirmed projects.

How much is lithium demand forecast to grow?

Benchmark forecasts demand rising from 2.11 million tonnes LCE this year to nearly 7 million tonnes by 2050. Its higher-demand scenario puts consumption near 9 million tonnes LCE.

Can recycling reduce the need for new mines?

Benchmark expects recovered material to account for almost half of lithium supply by mid-century. The amount available depends partly on when batteries reach the end of their useful lives and whether recycling can compete commercially with mining.

Which regions could increase their share of mined lithium?

Benchmark projects North America’s share of mined output rising from 1.7% this year to 13% by 2050. It expects Europe’s share to reach 5.5%, while Australia’s share could decline and China’s remain around one-quarter.

How certain is the investment estimate?

The more than $100 billion figure is tied to Benchmark’s long-term mine-equivalent supply forecast and comes before accounting for recycling. Its separate estimate of about $64 billion through 2040 assumes recycling meets a substantial portion of demand. Both are projections, not confirmed spending commitments.

Source: rss